Walking the Dog
“Crap” sputtered my aging, agitated, spittle spewing golf partner. Although the wind was almost nonexistent, he had a mildly disheveled look; tasseled hair (what was left), a rumpled sweater, hole in the bottom corner of his pant’s back pocket (produced by a bulging wallet), sagging colored socks and scuffed golf shoes. He looked like he could have been a rocket scientist, which indeed he had been at one time, and normally he displayed the expected, requisite high intelligence. But when certain subjects came up, the curtain came down. There were no ifs, ands, or buts...only one reality. In this case the one reality was the crap the liberals kept putting out about climate warming. “It’s a bunch of crap” he raged, “the weather is always changing; the temperature has a whole lot of natural variation. Global warming is a massive hoax perpetuated by the effete elites.” You don’t hear the word “effete” much any more, at least not since Spiro Agnew, President Nixon’s VP, left office in disgrace. The word placed my partner of a particular time and political persuasion. It wasn’t as if dementia was wrestling to gain control of his aging but still sharp mind. No, he was simply stating an obvious fact (to him) and surprised I could be so obtuse. “Look, it’s as simple as seeing the sun! How can you not see that?” he emphatically declared.
I could see the sun on that ideal, bright spring golf day but I just couldn’t see how he could be so sure about global warming. The question of global warming, at least it seems to me, appears to be not one but a whole series of questions with very few simple yes or no answers. And yet, I’ve also talked with people who strongly believe just the opposite of my perplexed putting partner. Those folks argue, just as emphatically, the United States should be taking corrective actions now! Stop emissions of harmful atmospheric gases NOW! Full steed ahead, damn the torpedoes....and cost. For instance, one day while walking my dog, I ran into a long time neighbor and very good friend (two things that don’t always go together) also walking her dog. We silently watched as they came nose to nose and nose to a variety of other doggie parts. “Mike, doesn’t global warming scare you to death?” she suddenly blurted, “We must do something!” I could tell from her half shut, sleep starved eyes that her grandkids had just spent the weekend. She was a typical loving grandmother; she loved to see her grandkids come and she loved to see them go home to their parents. Apparently spending time with them had brought some of the future to the present. My response to her question, a quick and simple “No”, puzzled her. Something even more puzzling was revealed during the ensuing discussion; I do however consider climate change a concern. Concerned but not scared? The popular media presents a continual, and at times overwhelming, stream of warm air about climate change. Everything is presented so cut and dried. No wonder my neighbor was terrified. But does she have a more accurate picture of global warming than my golf partner?
Whether my neighbor’s picture, her perception, of global warming is accurate or not, she and virtually everyone else touched by our instantaneous, interconnected, worldwide communications systems do have some beliefs on global warming. However, there are other problems, other issues, with the potential to cause huge disruptions to our way of life that remain hidden and dark on the path of simple solutions. Even if occasionally glimpsed, these obstacles to a better life are easily dismissed, covered by those thin, wispy answers that worked well in the past. A future not extrapolated from the past is difficult to see and even more difficult to believe possible. Let’s look at one of those issues.
A Gnarly, Root Covered Path
“Don’t worry,” he said, “prices will go up creating incentive to find additional oil and ultimately the pump price of gasoline will go back down. It’s simple economics.” I was getting a different dose of exercise this time, hiking through the mountains of North Carolina. It was another beautiful day and personal problems had been parked with the car at the forest’s edge. I was enjoying myself since I didn’t get much chance to walk. Everything is so spread out driving is normally a necessity. My hiking partner, an accomplished economist, was dismissing the possibility that the recent rise in pump prices was anything more than a minor blip. Since personal problems had been left behind, we had a chance to solve some of the world’s problems. What he said about economics was true; prices do a wonderful job of balancing supply and demand, a fact surprisingly little understood by many people in the U.S. However, with any problem it’s easy to perceive a simple cause and therefore work out a straightforward solution. With complex problems there are many intertwined causes and pulling on one is like pulling on a single strand in a tangled ball of twine, more and tighter knots can easily result. Stepping over a gnarled root that tried unsuccessfully to reach up and send me sprawling on my face, I put the question to my friend, “But there’s a huge, and growing, demand for oil. Look at how China and India continue to develop. Is there enough oil, and energy in general, to go around?”
“The incentive isn’t only to find more of the same thing, in this case oil and ultimately gasoline for our cars, but there’s also incentive to find alternatives. We humans are extremely inventive. Look at the past; wood, coal, whale oil for lighting, oil, nuclear, the path forward twists and turns but always leads forward.” he responded over his shoulder as he jumped a small mountain brook cascading down to the valley below. Not wanting to also cascade down to the valley below, I forged first before replying, “So I shouldn’t worry about gasoline shortages and high prices since each occurrence is like that root that just tried to grab me, something to step quickly over?”
“Most likely, yes.” he said as he picked up the pace and further success at solving major world problems had to wait for a rest break.
The Hidden Gnarly Root of Transportation Fuels Shortages
But are current gasoline prices truly like that unruly root that tried to trip me, something we’ll lightly step over and continue on unimpeded into the future? I think not. And yet, unlike global warming, seldom do you see or hear concerns about this problem. It’s a “sleeper” issue. This specific growing and gnarly root, the potential shortage (for a variety of reasons) of fuels for our cars, trucks, farm equipment, and planes, is already grabbing at our pant cuffs. When it trips us, our fall will be of epic proportions. Just the scarcity of transportation fuels is itself enough to skyrocket prices and send our society tumbling. Lying awake at night? You should be so lucky. Reduced and scarce supplies of transportation fuels would be a real nightmare—replayed, as if in the Groundhog Day movie, over and over each new day. To further complicate matters energy usage and climate change appear to be locked in a fatal embrace; the burning of fossil fuels, the foundation of modern societies and critical for developing countries, contributes to global warming.
To successfully navigate the root covered path ahead will require all our facilities, all our mental powers, to prevent our nightmares from becoming reality. In our modern complex world, our intuitions just aren’t enough to insure our survival. We must accept that many of our beliefs are simply opinions based upon limited knowledge. Reaching decisions about complex issues requires openness to inquiry about alternative possibilities, alternative truths, and alternative beliefs. If we can indeed perceive other possibilities, then our future can also hold many great and positive possibilities.
Copyright 2008
